Global economy, geopolitics and climate change: flashback to 2022 and what to expect in 2023
Executive summary
This insight document outlines developments in the global economy, geopolitics and climate change in
2022 and what to expect in 2023.
Overview
The major global challenges that defined the past decade continued in 2022. The pandemic shaped the global economy, while geopolitical tensions and climate change remained pressing issues. Despite some progress on these fronts, much work remains to be done to address these challenges in 2023 and beyond.
Key developments/differences/challenges
Economic recovery: While the global economy is expected to continue to recover in 2023, the pace of growth may be slower than in previous years due to ongoing challenges such as inflation and supply-chain disruptions.
Geopolitical tensions: Tensions among major powers such as the US, China and Russia are likely to remain high in 2023, with potential flashpoints including Taiwan, Ukraine and the South China Sea.
Outlook
2023 recession: The global economy is expected to continue to recover in 2023, but concerns around potential recession risks remain, particularly if inflation and supply-chain disruptions persist. The degree of economic recovery will likely be driven by factors such as vaccination rates, geopolitical stability, fiscal and monetary policy, and international cooperation.
Russia-Ukraine conflict: This could escalate and become a larger regional or even an international issue. There is also a risk of military action, which could lead to further economic and geopolitical instability. However, there is a possibility that diplomatic efforts may de-escalate the situation.
US-China tensions: These are expected to remain high in 2023, with trade, South China Sea- and Taiwan-related issues among the possible flashpoints. However, there could be opportunities for cooperation on issues such as climate change and public health. The trajectory of US-China relations will likely depend on a range of factors, such as the outcome of the 2022 US mid-term elections and China’s internal and international priorities.
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